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Tech · AI

Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?

Live

$4.9K
$4.9K
46
$3.8K
$6.6K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • Anthropic39.5%
  • Microsoft33.5%
  • Perplexity23.0%
  • Amazon15.5%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Tech · AI
Structure
Each question settles on its own; several can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
4 open
Fills, last 24 h
156
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
10,146 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Muse-like personal agent is an AI agent that runs on a cloud computer provided by the listed company that is dedicated to the individual user and remains assigned to that user between tasks, can begin tasks on its own, such as on a schedule or when a new email arrives, and can take actions on websites or in the user's connected accounts, such as sending email or submitting forms. Computing environments created for each task or session will not qualify. Products limited to a single type of task, such as coding, software development, email, or travel booking, offered only through an API, or sold only to businesses will not qualify. A Muse-like personal agent must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to paid subscription plans or to certain countries will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

This event has 4 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 04:07 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.