Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Live
- $10.3K
- $765.8K
- 63
- $142.7K
- $95.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Susie Wiles55.0%
- Pete Hegseth43.0%
- Russell Vought31.0%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.28.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
16 open · 5 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 55.0 %
Susie Wiles
$403.18 traded, 24 h
Yes 55.0¢No 45.0¢ - 43.0 %
Pete Hegseth
$8.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 43.0¢No 57.0¢ - 31.0 %
Russell Vought
Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢ - 28.0 %
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$92.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢ - 27.9 %
Dan Scavino
Yes 27.9¢No 72.1¢ - 27.0 %
Kristi Noem
$1.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢ - 25.5 %
Markwayne Mullin
Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢ - 23.5 %
Stephen Miller
$186.49 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢ - 23.5 %
Tom Homan
Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢ - 19.0 %
Howard Lutnick
$62.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 19.0¢No 81.0¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Trump
- Series
- Trump administration resignations · monthly
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 16 open · 5 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 286
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 21,894 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This event has 21 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
5 of the 21 have settled; Dan Bongino, Karoline Leavitt, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Pam Bondi, Tulsi Gabbard settled Yes.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 4, 2026 21:59 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.