Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
Live
- $14.0K
- $14.0K
- 70
- $7.6K
- $122.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- SpaceXAI / Elon Musk13.0%
- Anthropic9.5%
- Saudi Arabia9.0%
- China8.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
10 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 13.0 %
SpaceXAI / Elon Musk
$259.26 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢ - 9.5 %
Anthropic
$2.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢ - 9.0 %
Saudi Arabia
$995.81 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 8.0 %
Meta
$2.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢ - 8.0 %
Russia
$524.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢ - 8.0 %
China
$405.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢ - 6.5 %
Google
$1.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 2.0 %
Israel
$708.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢ - 1.8 %
North Korea
$927.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.7 %
Iran
$3.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 1.7¢No 98.3¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 10 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 400
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 37,969 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.
This event has 10 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 14, 2026 06:23 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.