Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Live
- $11.1K
- $297.3K
- 18
- $37.0K
- $75.7K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Ursula von der Leyen42.0%
- Mark Rutte35.0%
- Emmanuel Macron15.0%
- António Guterres12.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
7 open · 8 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 42.0 %
Ursula von der Leyen
$5.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 42.0¢No 58.0¢ - 35.0 %
Mark Rutte
$11.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 35.0¢No 65.0¢ - 15.0 %
Emmanuel Macron
$6.53 traded, 24 h
Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢ - 12.5 %
António Guterres
Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢ - 11.5 %
Mark Carney
$36.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢ - 6.5 %
JD Vance
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 3.8 %
Donald Trump
Yes 3.8¢No 96.2¢
Event facts
- Category
- World · Ukraine & Russia
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 7 open · 8 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 26
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 30,846 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 15 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
8 of the 15 have settled; Andy Burnham, António Costa, Donald Tusk, Friedrich Merz, Jared Kushner, Keith Kellogg, Maia Sandu, Steve Witkoff settled Yes.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 19, 2026 09:21 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.