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Politics · US elections

WI-05 House Election Winner

Live

$9.6K
$44.2K
24
$16.0K
$109.4K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.

  • Scott Fitzgerald (R)95.3%
  • Andrew Beck (D)1.5%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

2 open · 6 never traded

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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Event facts

Category
Politics · US elections
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
UMA CTF Adapter v3
Questions
2 open · 6 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
39
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
16,400 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

This event has 8 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 6, 2026 23:00 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.