Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?
Live
- $7.0K
- $30.3K
- 28
- $16.6K
- $76.9K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 3 questions with the highest chance now.
- President62.0%
- Senate21.5%
- Neither12.4%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
3 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 3 open questions add up to 95.9¢.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- No trading fee
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 3 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 111
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 18,167 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the office, between United States Senator and President of the United States, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first officially announces that she is running for in the 2028 election cycle by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to resolve this market in favor of the corresponding outcome, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The formation of an exploratory committee, or a statement that she is exploring or considering a run, will not qualify, nor will any filing that is not accompanied by an announcement. If the listed individual does not announce that she is running for either listed office by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Neither". An announcement of a run for the US House of Representatives will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 3 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2028 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 21, 2026 15:06 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.