Will Claude go down on __ days in October?
Live
- $8.0K
- $34.4K
- 60
- $14.1K
- $23.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 5-780.5%
- 8-1018.5%
- <50.2%
- 11-130.2%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
5 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 5 open questions add up to 99.5¢.
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Series
- Claude Downtime · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- No trading fee
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 5 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 178
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 10,855 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
This event has 5 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 29, 2026 04:24 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.