Skip to content
●Polyrank
Tech · AIClaude Downtime

Will Claude go down on __ days in October?

Live

$8.0K
$34.4K
60
$14.1K
$23.3K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • 5-780.5%
  • 8-1018.5%
  • <50.2%
  • 11-130.2%
Loading the event chart…

Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

5 open

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 5 open questions add up to 99.5¢.

Sort

Event facts

Category
Tech · AI
Series
Claude Downtime · monthly
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
No trading fee
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
5 open
Fills, last 24 h
178
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
10,855 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

Who is trading this event

See who is trading this event

The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

Create account to unlock

Who is trading this event

Loading who is trading this event…

How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

This event has 5 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 29, 2026 04:24 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.