Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
Live
- $7.1K
- $194.0K
- 22
- $126.0K
- $38.9K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 3 questions with the highest chance now.
- December 31, 202839.5%
- December 31, 202717.0%
- December 31, 20264.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
3 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- No trading fee
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 3 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 26
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 8,037 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
This event has 3 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2029 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 31, 2026 05:34 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.