Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by...?
Live
- $6.1K
- $6.9K
- 35
- $3.3K
- $29.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.
- December 313.4%
- November 302.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
2 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Ukraine & Russia
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 2 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 65
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 8,044 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, (46.617193° N, 32.722638° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (Story Map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375; Web Map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW Web Map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This event has 2 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against storymaps.arcgis.com. Open the source
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 31, 2026 05:30 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.