Politics · TrumpTrump 538 Approval Binary
Question
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?
Live
Yes
29.5 % chance
No
70.5 % chance
$277.50
9
Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 22:09 UTC · Eligible for resolution Oct 17, 2026 03:59 UTC
Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16? → all 9 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 29.5 %chance
- Yes 29.5¢ · No 70.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
24.4¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
32.0¢
Yes price now
7.6¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
13
Smart money
4
Top holders
- li…96No104
- Q…1Yes160
- A…VNo97.6
- cl…y1Yes160
- tr…e1No40
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