Politics · US electionsOil
Question
Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
Live
Yes
5.0 % chance
No
95.0 % chance
$3.5K
21
Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 16:37 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 5.0 %chance
- Yes 5.0¢ · No 95.0¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
4.0¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
5.0¢
Yes price now
0.9¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
36
Smart money
18
Top holders
- 1n…r1No2,071
- ci…esNo1,957
- SR…oyYes5,000
- 1w…usNo1,000
- Ha…thNo714
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