Politics · US elections
Question
Will the Republican Party win the CA-04 House seat?
Live
Yes
5.8 % chance
No
94.2 % chance
$742.52
26
Trading opened Jan 28, 2026 06:08 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 5.8 %chance
- Yes 5.8¢ · No 94.2¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
5.3¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
5.8¢
Yes price now
0.5¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
40
Smart money
17
Top holders
- 12…05No1,870
- Ha…thNo400
- Si…eeNo358.3
- v…iNo251.3
- Si…eeYes598.9
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