Politics · TrumpTrump 538 Approval Binary
Question
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.4 on October 16, 2026?
Live
Yes
95.5 % chance
No
4.5 % chance
$677.18
15
Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 22:08 UTC · Eligible for resolution Oct 17, 2026 03:59 UTC
Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16? → all 9 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 95.5 %chance
- Yes 95.5¢ · No 4.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
77.2¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
95.5¢
Yes price now
18.3¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
29
Smart money
12
Top holders
- cl…y1Yes678.9
- Ha…thNo396.6
- jo…joYes124.5
- A…VNo210
- hi…arNo188.7
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