Politics · Geopolitics
Question
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Live · started Jan 3 18:50 UTC
Yes
3.5 % chance
No
96.5 % chance
$8.5K
5
Trading opened Jan 4, 2026 20:18 UTC · Eligible for resolution Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 3.5 %chance
- Yes 3.5¢ · No 96.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
12.4¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
3.5¢
Yes price now
8.8¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
19
Smart money
4
Top holders
- D…KNo24,615
- aa…a1Yes11,757
- no…f3Yes10,000
- CP…alNo4,413
- Th…alYes6,904
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