Politics · Ukraine & RussiaGeopolitics
Question
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Live
Yes
11.5 % chance
No
88.5 % chance
$9.6K
34
Trading opened May 16, 2026 01:24 UTC · Eligible for resolution Dec 31, 2026 21:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 11.5 %chance
- Yes 11.5¢ · No 88.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
20.1¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
11.5¢
Yes price now
8.6¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
40
Smart money
27
Top holders
- fl…ceNo66,926
- Vl…erYes97,878
- ho…stNo47,201
- Sl…anNo37,660
- Kr…erNo35,003
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