Politics · TrumpTrump 538 Approval Binary
Question
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.6 on October 16, 2026?
Live
Yes
84.0 % chance
No
16.0 % chance
$232.91
10
Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 22:08 UTC · Eligible for resolution Oct 17, 2026 03:59 UTC
Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16? → all 9 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 84.0 %chance
- Yes 84.0¢ · No 16.0¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
57.5¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
69.5¢
Yes price now
12.0¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
17
Smart money
7
Top holders
- A…VNo366.3
- cl…y1Yes98.8
- Q…1Yes115.2
- tr…e1Yes80
- po…erYes58.3
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