Politics · US elections
Question
Vance's Republican nomination odds dip to 25% by December 31?
Live
Yes
39.5 % chance
No
60.5 % chance
$277.04
8
Trading opened Nov 3, 2026 22:16 UTC · Eligible for resolution Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC
Vance's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31? → all 4 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 39.5 %chance
- Yes 39.5¢ · No 60.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
35.0¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
39.5¢
Yes price now
4.5¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
9
Smart money
6
Top holders
- li…erNo215.6
- xt…meYes70
- me…taYes38
- Pe…ngYes28
- Gu…erYes20
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