Politics · TrumpTrump 538 Approval Binary
Question
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.8 on October 16, 2026?
Live
Yes
52.5 % chance
No
47.5 % chance
$105.73
9
Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 22:09 UTC · Eligible for resolution Oct 17, 2026 03:59 UTC
Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16? → all 9 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 52.5 %chance
- Yes 52.5¢ · No 47.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
48.6¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
77.5¢
Yes price now
28.9¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
15
Smart money
5
Top holders
- cl…y1Yes65
- A…VNo62
- Sc…opNo40
- Mi…dcNo20
- Up…rsNo15
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