Politics · US elections
Question
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?
Live
Yes
73.0 % chance
No
27.0 % chance
$9.8K
50
Trading opened Jan 28, 2026 06:08 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 73.0 %chance
- Yes 73.0¢ · No 27.0¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
88.6¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
73.0¢
Yes price now
15.5¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
343
Smart money
28
Top holders
- b…5Yes4,620
- 2g…reNo5,445
- Gl…s7Yes1,979
- i…tYes670.7
- Im…ngYes660
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