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Politics · US elections

Question

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?

Live

Yes
73.0 % chance
No
27.0 % chance
$9.8K
50

Trading opened Jan 28, 2026 06:08 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC

CA-04 House Election Winner → all 8 questions

Where is the price now, and how did it get there?

  • 73.0 %chance
  • Yes 73.0¢ · No 27.0¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market

88.6¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
73.0¢
Yes price now
15.5¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
343
Smart money
28

Top holders

  • b…5Yes4,620
  • 2g…reNo5,445
  • Gl…s7Yes1,979
  • i…tYes670.7
  • Im…ngYes660

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Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat? — where holders bought & who holds it · Polyrank