Politics · US elections
Question
Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 45% by December 31?
Live
Yes
12.5 % chance
No
87.5 % chance
$3.1K
32
Trading opened Nov 3, 2026 22:16 UTC · Eligible for resolution Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC
Vance's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31? → all 4 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 12.5 %chance
- Yes 12.5¢ · No 87.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
22.3¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
12.5¢
Yes price now
9.8¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
86
Smart money
26
Top holders
- BA…89No228
- v…iNo122.9
- AnonymousYes227.5
- tr…e1Yes170
- Wa…rHNo68
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