Politics · TrumpTrump 538 Approval Binary
Question
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.2 on October 16, 2026?
Live
Yes
98.0 % chance
No
2.0 % chance
$2.3K
25
Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 22:08 UTC · Eligible for resolution Oct 17, 2026 03:59 UTC
Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16? → all 9 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 98.0 %chance
- Yes 98.0¢ · No 2.0¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
82.0¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
97.7¢
Yes price now
15.7¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
41
Smart money
18
Top holders
- sp…stYes3,116
- A…VNo1,760
- sb…bgNo1,000
- tr…e1Yes131
- cl…y1Yes116.3
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