Politics · US elections
Question
Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 40% by December 31?
Live
Yes
16.5 % chance
No
83.5 % chance
$3.9K
33
Trading opened Nov 3, 2026 22:16 UTC · Eligible for resolution Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC
Vance's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31? → all 4 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 16.5 %chance
- Yes 16.5¢ · No 83.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
42.5¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
16.5¢
Yes price now
26.0¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
59
Smart money
22
Top holders
- v…iNo3,795
- li…erYes685.1
- Zh…CDYes500
- v…iYes545
- bi…88Yes240
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