Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

Live

Yes

4.2 % chance

95.8 % chance

$5.2K

Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 16:37 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms? → all 4 questions

Where is the price now, and how did it get there?

4.2 %chance
Yes 4.2¢ · No 95.8¢

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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market

4.1¢

Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)

4.2¢

Yes price now

0.1¢

Holders paid below the current price

24h fills

Smart money

Top holders

1n…r1No2,390
ci…esNo1,957
1w…usNo1,674
Dr…eeNo1,227
SR…oyYes5,000

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