Politics · GeopoliticsChina invade Taiwan
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Live
Yes
8.5 % chance
No
91.5 % chance
$27.0K
19
Trading opened Mar 17, 2026 23:30 UTC · Eligible for resolution Jan 1, 2028 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 8.5 %chance
- Yes 8.5¢ · No 91.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
14.1¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
8.5¢
Yes price now
5.6¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
19
Smart money
7
Top holders
- wi…reNo250,411
- by…ngNo236,467
- N…HNo132,023
- co…19Yes198,023
- ba…arNo81,000
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