Politics · Ukraine & RussiaGeopolitics
Question
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Live
Yes
6.5 % chance
No
93.5 % chance
$6.9K
6
Trading opened Feb 19, 2026 12:27 UTC · Eligible for resolution Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 6.5 %chance
- Yes 6.5¢ · No 93.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
46.0¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
6.5¢
Yes price now
39.5¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
7
Smart money
4
Top holders
- De…ovNo33,968
- Du…MFYes24,849
- Us…htNo12,123
- Gl…s7No12,232
- Br…86Yes6,729
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