Smart-Money Report — Week 25, 2026
June 15 – June 21, 2026 · generated from on-chain data
01 / The numbers
$1163.9M
Volume traded
16,728,550
Fills
302,017
Active wallets
94,049
Markets resolved
02 / Biggest banked wins
- Po…it+$73.9K profit
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? — banked $223.9K on YES
- 0x36…fe+$73.0K profit
Spread: Spain (-1.5) — banked $104.3K on NO
- Po…it+$72.4K profit
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? — banked $172.4K on YES
- Po…it+$50.0K profit
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? — banked $125.0K on YES
- 0x36…fe+$48.8K profit
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) — banked $95.0K on NO
03 / Leaderboard movers (top 25, skill order)
Rank-change tracking starts with the next report — this is the baseline week.
04 / Calibration leader
Top of the profitable-calibrators board this week — 26,106 trades, $260.3K lifetime P&L. When they price an outcome, reality tends to agree.
05 / Skilled money vs the crowd
- Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists
skilled cohort 0% YES vs market 98% · 1 skilled positioners
- Brandon Thomas-Asante: 1+ shots
skilled cohort 86% YES vs market 1% · 2 skilled positioners
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?
skilled cohort 72% YES vs market 3% · 151 skilled positioners
Divergence measured at publication time. Not investment advice.
06 / The top 10, skill order
| # | Trader | Skill score | P&L | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03…33 | 99.9 | $260.3K | $141.7M |
| 2 | 0xEa…A8 | 99.8 | $46.5K | $2.3M |
| 3 | Ni…le | 99.8 | $20.3K | $596.6K |
| 4 | 0x…17 | 99.8 | $25.8K | $2.6M |
| 5 | 0x…D0 | 99.8 | $20.1K | $2.2M |
| 6 | 0x…86 | 99.8 | $19.9K | $2.0M |
| 7 | i…i | 99.8 | $24.3K | $1.9M |
| 8 | 0x…68 | 99.8 | $22.2K | $2.0M |
| 9 | 0x…22 | 99.8 | $14.0K | $1.3M |
| 10 | 0x…49 | 99.8 | $13.7K | $1.5M |
Full live board with all skill metrics: best Polymarket traders.