Smart-Money Report — Week 43, 2026
October 19 – October 25, 2026 · generated from on-chain data
01 / The numbers
$666.1M
Volume traded
10,092,193
Fills
115,882
Active wallets
648,254
Markets resolved
02 / Biggest banked wins
- d…m+$57.2K profit
Will FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? — banked $76.2K on YES
- Po…it+$54.5K profit
Celtics vs. Pistons — banked $89.8K on NO
- Po…it+$33.3K profit
Bucks vs. Wizards — banked $78.6K on NO
- st…on+$31.6K profit
4-pick combo: Steelers vs. Saints (Steelers) · Browns vs. Titans (Browns) · Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-10-25? (Yes) · Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25? (Yes) — banked $37.0K on YES
- De…se+$26.3K profit
6-pick combo: Forest Green Rovers FC vs. Chesham United FC: O/U 2.5 (Over) · Yeovil Town FC vs. Leatherhead FC: O/U 2.5 (Over) · Stafford Rangers FC vs. Gateshead FC: O/U 2.5 (Over) · Will Macclesfield FC win on 2026-10-20? (Yes) · Will Altrincham FC win on 2026-10-20? (Yes) · Will Harrogate Town AFC win on 2026-10-20? (Yes) — banked $27.0K on YES
03 / Leaderboard movers (top 25, skill order)
04 / Calibration leader
Top of the calibration board this week — 1,379 trades, $22.8K lifetime P&L. When they price an outcome, reality tends to agree.
05 / Where the skilled cohort bought
- Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Vienna, Austria?
skilled cohort paid 99% for YES vs market 3% now · 2 holders
- Will Brandon Nakashima win the 2026 Vienna, Austria?
skilled cohort paid 99% for YES vs market 4% now · 1 holders
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 26?
skilled cohort paid 6% for YES vs market 100% now · 92 holders
Holder entry prices measured at publication time. Not a forecast, not investment advice.
06 / The top 10, skill order
| # | Trader | Skill score | P&L | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fe…er | 99.0 | $112.0K | $2.8M |
| 2 | Da…od | 98.2 | $53.8K | $2.0M |
| 3 | ar…ic | 98.1 | $199.2K | $19.8M |
| 4 | Ba…io | 98.1 | $266.1K | $8.4M |
| 5 | Fl…ok | 97.9 | $68.4K | $5.9M |
| 6 | Co…la | 97.8 | $24.1K | $3.5M |
| 7 | Fu…er | 97.1 | $470.3K | $8.6M |
| 8 | mo…gl | 97.1 | $28.4K | $1.2M |
| 9 | rx…er | 97.0 | $7.4K | $378.6K |
| 10 | Bi…op | 96.6 | $57.6K | $704.4K |
Full live board with all skill metrics: best Polymarket traders.