df…df

#78· composite 99.3

0xD3…2a

Total P&L

+$9.5K

P100

Win rate

96.5%

P99

Volume

$362.4K

P99

Trades / markets

3,287 / 312

Calibration — forecasts vs reality

This wallet's predicted probabilities vs how often those outcomes actually happened. Win-rate is a vanity metric; calibration is the real skill signal. The full breakdown — Brier, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe — is below.

The skill breakdown

Profitability

Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
Total P&L
Return on volume
Profit factor
Profit per $ risked
Time-weighted return
Gross/net ratio
Expectancy
Top-1 profit share
Top-3 profit share

Calibration

Brier score
Brier skill score
Murphy resolution
Log loss
Peer score
Baseline score
Calibration score
Bonder-adjusted Brier
Skill persistence

Risk

Sharpe ratio
Sortino ratio
Calmar ratio
Max drawdown
Days under water
CVaR (5%)
P&L volatility
Ulcer index
Recovery factor
Return skew
Open exposure
Floating loss
Market volatility

Alpha

Alpha vs mid
Average entry edge
Counter-consensus alpha
Information coefficient
Early-entry alpha
Late-entry alpha
Late-entry return

Activity

Lifetime volume
30-day volume
24-hour volume
Trade count
Markets traded
Days active
Trading frequency
Track record
Signal freshness

Conviction

Average position size
Position-size CV
Concentration HHI
Kelly adherence
Peak capital deployed
Typical capital deployed
Median entry price
Favourite-grinder share
Executable-band share
Paying-band share
Median clip size
P25 clip size

Execution

Fee burden
Speed of entry
Typical hold time
Median hold time
Fast-exit share (<5 min)
Hold to exit
Hold to resolution
Peak concurrent positions
Copyability
Execution slippage
Max copyable clip
Copier-realized return

Performance

Win rate
Win/loss P&L ratio
Longest win streak
Longest loss streak
Hit rate vs implied

Category Specialization

Category HHI
Best category Brier
Category win-rate spread
Top category share

Unlock all 84 skill metrics — free

Brier calibration, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe, information coefficient & full trade history.

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Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice · Every number traces to a Polygon tx. Explore the leaderboard