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#264· composite 92.7

0x78…a7

Total P&L

+$1.6K

P99

Win rate

5.1%

Volume

$56.4K

P98

Trades / markets

53,783 / 34

Calibration — forecasts vs reality

This wallet's predicted probabilities vs how often those outcomes actually happened. Win-rate is a vanity metric; calibration is the real skill signal. The full breakdown — Brier, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe — is below.

The skill breakdown

Profitability

Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
Total P&L
Return on volume
Profit factor
Profit per $ risked
Time-weighted return
Gross/net ratio

Calibration

Brier score
Brier skill score
Murphy reliability
Murphy resolution
Log loss
Expected calibration error
Peer score
Baseline score
Calibration AUC
Bonder-adjusted Brier

Risk

Sharpe ratio
Sortino ratio
Calmar ratio
Max drawdown
Drawdown duration
CVaR (5%)
Return volatility

Alpha

Alpha vs mid
Average entry edge
Counter-consensus alpha
Information coefficient
Early-entry alpha
Late-entry alpha
Late-entry return

Activity

Lifetime volume
30-day volume
24-hour volume
Trade count
Markets traded
Days active
Trading frequency
Survivability

Conviction

Average position size
Position-size CV
Concentration HHI

Execution

Fee burden
Speed of entry
Mean hold duration
Concurrent positions

Performance

Win rate
Win/loss P&L ratio
Longest win streak
Longest loss streak
Hit rate vs implied

Category Specialization

Category HHI
Best category Brier
Category win-rate spread
Top category share

Unlock all 56 skill metrics — free

Brier calibration, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe, information coefficient & full trade history.

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Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice · Every number traces to a Polygon tx. Explore the leaderboard