th…in

Calibration — entry price vs how those positions finished

Entry price paid vs how often those positions actually finished in profit, over this wallet's lifetime resolved positions. Diagonal = the price was exactly right. Empty bins sit on the diagonal — that is “not measured”, not “perfectly calibrated”.

These bins plot the MONEY verdict — the bin rate is the same statistic as the win rate above, split by entry price. For whether the market settled on the side they bought, read Calibration excess, which is on the oracle frame. The full breakdown — Calibration excess, Brier, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe — is below.