What Is a Good Win Rate on Polymarket? It Depends on the Price

The break-even win rate at each price

A share bought at a price pays $1 if its side wins and nothing if it loses. The win rate that breaks even, before fees, is the price itself.

The last row is why very high win rates are common and say little: at 95¢ there is almost no room left to beat the price.

Two numbers that are both called "winning"

• Win rate counts positions that made money. Selling a losing side early at a small profit counts as a win.
• Prediction accuracy counts positions where the side bought won. It is the number to set beside the average price paid.

The two can disagree for the same wallet. Polyrank shows both, each under its own name, and the trader page states the comparison in one sentence: how often the side won, at what average price, over how many resolved positions. Why win rate lies has the longer argument.

To check a wallet, paste it into the wallet lookup.

Questions

What is a good win rate on Polymarket?+

There is no single good number. A win rate is good when it is higher than the average price paid for the side bought: winning 55 percent of the time at an average price of 50 cents beats the odds, while winning 95 percent of the time at 95 cents only breaks even before fees.

Why do some Polymarket traders have a 95% win rate?+

Because they buy outcomes priced near 95 cents. Those win about 95 percent of the time by construction. A high win rate at high prices shows a price preference, not skill.

What is the difference between win rate and prediction accuracy?+

Win rate is the share of positions that made money. Prediction accuracy is the share of positions where the side the trader bought won. A position sold early can count in one and not the other.