As a trader
Did the trades make money?
- Closed positions in profit
- 1 of 1
- Profit on 100 shares
- +$13.00 on $42.50
- Return
- +30.6 %
Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Re-ranked daily on real-time data
How it works
How we score a trader
Profit rewards luck and size. We score whether the price a wallet paid was right, in three steps.
Chapter 1
The luck machine
Give 1,000 people a fair coin and 100 bets at 50¢. Nobody has an edge. A leaderboard sorted by profit will still crown ten geniuses.
Fig. 2 · simulated
Final profit of 1,000 coin-flippers
−$40−$20$0+$20+$40the “top 10”
+$22 or better ↓
+$22 or better ↓
Round 1
The profit leaderboard
| # | Trader | Profit | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flipper #0244 | +$28 | 64 % |
| =2 | Flipper #0460 | +$26 | 63 % |
| =2 | Flipper #0758 | +$26 | 63 % |
| =4 | Flipper #0282 | +$24 | 62 % |
| =4 | Flipper #0379 | +$24 | 62 % |
| =4 | Flipper #0548 | +$24 | 62 % |
| =4 | Flipper #0549 | +$24 | 62 % |
| =4 | Flipper #0689 | +$24 | 62 % |
| =9 | Flipper #0394 | +$22 | 61 % |
| =9 | Flipper #0521 | +$22 | 61 % |
Rerun every coin and see who stays on top.
A leaderboard sorted by profit is mostly a leaderboard of coin flips. Polyrank asks a different question: would they win again?
Measured on real Polymarket traders
Skill persists. Of the top 1% of traders by luck-adjusted edge in Q2 2026 who kept trading, 81% were still in the top 10% the next quarter. Chance would be 10%.
Chapter 2
Two ways to be right
A trader can read the price right and the world wrong. Polyrank scores the two separately. Here is one real market, and one example trade in it.
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Yes price, ¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢OctNovDecJanFebMarBought Yes · 42.5¢Sold · 55.5¢ (+13¢)Held to the end: −42.5¢ a sharePeak 84.5¢Resolved No · Yes paid 0¢
✓ Good trade
As a predictor
Did they back what happened?
- Resolved calls right
- 0 of 1
- Paid vs what happened
- 42.5¢ for a side that paid 0¢
- Edge vs odds
- −42.5 pp
1 · The market
Through the autumn, traders priced a Hassett nomination between 23¢ and 47.5¢.
2 · The trade
An example buyer takes Yes at 42.5¢ on 20 Nov and sells nine days later at 55.5¢: +13¢ a share.
3 · The resolution
The price peaked at 84.5¢. Then the market resolved No: the Yes they backed paid 0¢.
4 · Two report cards
Good trade, wrong call. A P&L leaderboard sees only the first card. Polyrank scores both, and tells you which one a wallet is good at.
Chapter 3
Price paid vs what happened
If you keep paying 40¢, you should win about 4 times in 10. Win more often than the prices you paid, and you are seeing something the market isn’t. That gap is what we score.
Fig. 4 · live
A top-ranked wallet (Du…nt), 4,834 resolved positions
Move the price
- Paid about
- 54¢
- The price says win
- 54 in 100
- It actually won
- 97 in 100
+43 points better than the price, over 34 positions.