Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Live
- $136.3K
- $12.62M
- 340
- $3.57M
- $9.33M
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Harry Kane52.8%
- Lamine Yamal39.3%
- Lionel Messi3.1%
- Kylian Mbappé2.8%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
19 open · 12 settled · 58 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 52.8 %
Harry Kane
$32.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 52.8¢No 47.2¢ - 39.3 %
Lamine Yamal
$22.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 39.3¢No 60.7¢ - 3.1 %
Lionel Messi
$10.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢ - 2.8 %
Kylian Mbappé
$11.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢ - 1.1 %
Rodri
$11.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
Michael Olise
$9.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
$9.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Ousmane Dembélé
$9.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Fabian Ruiz
$9.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Erling Haaland
$8.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
- < 1 %
Jude Bellingham
$11.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Vitinha
$6.54 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Pau Cubarsi
$5.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Achraf Hakimi
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Bruno Fernandes
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Declan Rice
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Lautaro Martinez
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Luis Diaz
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Vinícius Júnior
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
58 more that never traded
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AC
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AD
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AE
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AX
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AZ
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BU
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BV
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BW
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BX
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BY
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BZ
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Gavi
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Other
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W
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X
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Y
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Z
Event facts
- Category
- Sports · Soccer
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 3% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 19 open · 12 settled · 58 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 1,393
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 479,280 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
This event has 89 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
12 of the 89 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 10:02 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.