Brazil Presidential Election
Live · past its resolution date, awaiting the result
- $670.7K
- $59.62M
- 578
- $8.81M
- $2.11M
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.
- Flávio Bolsonaro85.7%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva13.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
2 open · 17 settled · 13 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 85.7 %
Flávio Bolsonaro
$294.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 85.7¢No 14.3¢ - 13.5 %
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$376.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢
13 more that never traded
17 settled
- Settled No
Aldo Rebelo
- Settled No
Augusto Cury
- Settled No
Camilo Santana
- Settled No
Eduardo Bolsonaro
- Settled No
Eduardo Leite
- Settled No
Fernando Haddad
- Settled No
Geraldo Alckmin
- Settled No
Helder Barbalho
- Settled No
Jair Bolsonaro
- Settled No
Michelle Bolsonaro
- Settled No
Pablo Marçal
- Settled No
Ratinho Júnior
- Settled No
Renan Santos
- Settled No
Romeu Zema
- Settled No
Ronaldo Caiado
- Settled No
Tarcisio de Freitas
- Settled No
Tereza Cristina
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Global elections
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 2 open · 17 settled · 13 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 1,385
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 2,715,855 shares
- Created
- First trade
- Event start
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This event has 32 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
17 of the 32 have already settled No.
It has been eligible for resolution since Oct 5, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 8, 2026 22:57 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.