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Politics · Middle EastOil

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Open, no trades in the last 24 h

$0.00
$138.7K
0
$8.1K
$38.4K

Questions in this event

1 open · 2 settled

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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Event facts

Category
Politics · Middle East
Structure
Each question settles on its own; several can win
Resolution terms
Varies by question
Questions
1 open · 2 settled
Fills, last 24 h
0
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

This event has 3 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

2 of the 3 have already settled No.

It has been eligible for resolution since Oct 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 14, 2026 22:47 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.