Fed rate cut by...?
Live
- $19.2K
- $2.30M
- 8
- $87.1K
- $78.0K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- July 2027 Meeting45.5%
- April 2027 Meeting35.0%
- June 2027 Meeting27.5%
- March 2027 Meeting14.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
6 open · 7 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 45.5 %
July 2027 Meeting
Yes 45.5¢No 54.5¢ - 35.0 %
April 2027 Meeting
Yes 35.0¢No 65.0¢ - 27.5 %
June 2027 Meeting
Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢ - 14.5 %
March 2027 Meeting
$80.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢ - 10.1 %
January 2027 Meeting
$2.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.1¢No 89.9¢ - 2.5 %
December 2026 Meeting
$1.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Central banks & rates
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- Varies by question
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 6 open · 7 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 9
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 19,335 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 13 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
7 of the 13 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jan 29, 2028 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 28, 2026 20:43 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.