First snow of the 2026 season
Live
- $9.6K
- $31.7K
- 30
- $12.3K
- $10.7K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Denver, CO by November 3097.2%
- Salt Lake City, UT by November 3095.4%
- Detroit, MI by November 3085.5%
- Pittsburgh, PA by November 3085.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
29 open · 2 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 97.2 %
Denver, CO by November 30
$0.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 97.2¢No 2.8¢ - 95.4 %
Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
$0.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 95.4¢No 4.6¢ - 85.5 %
Detroit, MI by November 30
Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢ - 85.0 %
Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢ - 79.0 %
Chicago, IL by November 30
Yes 79.0¢No 21.0¢ - 79.0 %
Kansas City, MO by November 30
Yes 79.0¢No 21.0¢ - 70.5 %
Minneapolis, MN by November 30
Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢ - 69.9 %
Indianapolis, IN by November 30
Yes 69.9¢No 30.1¢ - 67.0 %
Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
$75.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢ - 66.0 %
New York City, NY by November 30
Yes 66.0¢No 34.0¢
- 58.0 %
St. Louis, MO by November 30
Yes 58.0¢No 42.0¢ - 57.6 %
Buffalo, NY by November 30
$40.09 traded, 24 h
Yes 57.6¢No 42.4¢ - 57.5 %
Cincinnati, OH by November 30
$2.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 57.5¢No 42.5¢ - 55.0 %
Boston, MA by November 30
Yes 55.0¢No 45.0¢ - 52.0 %
Buffalo, NY by November 15
$34.26 traded, 24 h
Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢ - 40.5 %
Detroit, MI by November 15
$32.50 traded, 24 h
Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢ - 39.5 %
Washington, DC by November 30
$61.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢ - 39.0 %
Philadelphia, PA by November 30
$20.50 traded, 24 h
Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢ - 38.0 %
Chicago, IL by November 15
$48.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢ - 36.5 %
Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
Yes 36.5¢No 63.5¢ - 34.5 %
Boston, MA by November 15
$50.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢ - 33.0 %
Kansas City, MO by November 15
$281.74 traded, 24 h
Yes 33.0¢No 67.0¢ - 30.0 %
Minneapolis, MN by November 15
$77.86 traded, 24 h
Yes 30.0¢No 70.0¢ - 29.5 %
Nashville, TN by November 30
$77.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢ - 29.0 %
Indianapolis, IN by November 15
$65.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 29.0¢No 71.0¢ - 28.7 %
Denver, CO by November 15
Yes 28.7¢No 71.3¢ - 19.0 %
Dallas, TX by November 30
Yes 19.0¢No 81.0¢ - 11.5 %
Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
$223.32 traded, 24 h
Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢ - 6.0 %
Denver, CO by October 31
$96.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢
Event facts
- Category
- Weather · Climate
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 29 open · 2 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 77
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 10,398 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its window. Because the final climate report for a day is issued the following morning, each market carries a resolution date 3 days after its deadline as an outer limit for that publication lag, not a waiting period: October 31, 2026 (by November 3, 2026); November 15, 2026 (by November 18, 2026); November 30, 2026 (by December 3, 2026). Each market's resolution source is that city's NWS Daily Climate Report, linked in that market's details. Those pages show the latest report only; past daily reports for every city are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/.
This event has 31 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
2 of the 31 have already settled No.
The result is checked against forecast.weather.gov. Open the source
It can settle from Dec 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 2, 2026 02:32 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.