Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Live
- $8.7K
- $27.5K
- 37
- $8.7K
- $27.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.
- October 3111.3%
- October 150.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
2 open · 2 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Middle East
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 2 open · 2 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 53
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 11,042 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period during which neither the Houthis nor Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against the other, following a qualifying military action (or market creation) that occurs on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." Only qualifying military actions that occur after market creation count. The 14-day period starts on the calendar day (ET) after the most recent qualifying action, or on the date of market creation if none has occurred after market creation. The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. Each new qualifying action restarts the count. This market resolves to "Yes" if such a full 14-day period is completed following either market creation or a qualifying action that occurred on or before the specified date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that is either initiated by the Houthis and directly impacts Saudi Arabia, or initiated by Saudi Arabia and directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia or Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters, and “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia or Yemen respectively as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 4 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
2 of the 4 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 18, 2026 18:37 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.