Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Live
- $5.5K
- $29.7K
- 27
- $9.8K
- $427.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- No Next Minister by Feb 2840.9%
- Naftali Bennett20.7%
- Israel Katz13.9%
- Yair Golan6.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
18 open · 16 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 40.9 %
No Next Minister by Feb 28
$5.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 40.9¢No 59.1¢ - 20.7 %
Naftali Bennett
$114.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 20.7¢No 79.3¢ - 13.9 %
Israel Katz
$224.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.9¢No 86.1¢ - 6.5 %
Yair Golan
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 6.3 %
Avigdor Lieberman
Yes 6.3¢No 93.7¢ - 5.5 %
Ofer Winter
$174.96 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢ - 5.5 %
Bezalel Smotrich
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢ - 4.6 %
Elazar Stern
Yes 4.6¢No 95.4¢ - 4.6 %
Yair Lapid
Yes 4.6¢No 95.4¢ - 4.5 %
Itamar Ben Gvir
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢
16 more that never traded
- No quote now
Other
- No quote now
Person L
- No quote now
Person M
- No quote now
Person N
- No quote now
Person O
- No quote now
Person P
- No quote now
Person Q
- No quote now
Person R
- No quote now
Person S
- No quote now
Person T
- No quote now
Person U
- No quote now
Person V
- No quote now
Person W
- No quote now
Person X
- No quote now
Person Y
- No quote now
Person Z
Event facts
- Category
- World · Global elections
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 18 open · 16 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 45
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 11,420 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 34 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Mar 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 19, 2026 03:40 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.