Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
Live
- $6.2K
- $13.8K
- 62
- $4.6K
- $31.7K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- No release by November 3070.5%
- November 286.9%
- November 154.6%
- November 213.4%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
24 open · 5 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 24 open questions add up to 107.0¢.
- 70.5 %
No release by November 30
$2.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢ - 6.9 %
November 28
$650.59 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.9¢No 93.1¢ - 4.6 %
November 15
$39.97 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.6¢No 95.4¢ - 3.4 %
November 21
$203.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.4¢No 96.6¢ - 3.2 %
November 14
$129.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.2¢No 96.8¢ - 3.0 %
November 16
$206.89 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 2.8 %
November 29
$158.55 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢ - 2.4 %
November 10
$198.91 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.4¢No 97.6¢ - 1.8 %
November 30
$228.93 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.6 %
November 25
$203.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢
- 1.6 %
November 23
$129.57 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - < 1 %
November 9
$129.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
November 27
$174.18 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢ - < 1 %
November 17
$129.87 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 19
$129.87 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 22
$169.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 12
$129.72 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 20
$314.62 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
November 26
$238.55 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
November 18
$169.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 13
$169.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 24
$169.16 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 8
$19.98 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
November 11
$19.98 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Series
- Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 24 open · 5 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 247
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 9,923 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 29 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
5 of the 29 have already settled No.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 9, 2026 03:00 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.