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Politics · Middle EastUS x Iran diplomatic meeting

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

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The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.

  • December 31, 202641.0%
  • November 30, 202621.5%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

2 open · 4 settled

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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Event facts

Category
Politics · Middle East
Series
US x Iran diplomatic meeting
Structure
Each question settles on its own; several can win
Resolution terms
Varies by question
Questions
2 open · 4 settled
Fills, last 24 h
100
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
38,513 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

This event has 6 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

4 of the 6 have already settled No.

It can settle from Dec 31, 2026 23:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Nov 8, 2026 10:24 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.