Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026
Live
- $11.4K
- $11.4K
- 63
- $9.2K
- $26.6K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Ariel Pakes20.0%
- Susan Athey20.0%
- Robert Barro11.5%
- Richard Blundell9.6%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
17 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 20.0 %
Ariel Pakes
$3.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢ - 20.0 %
Susan Athey
$2.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢ - 11.5 %
Robert Barro
$619.18 traded, 24 h
Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢ - 9.6 %
Richard Blundell
$131.33 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.6¢No 90.4¢ - 9.5 %
Victor Chernozhukov
$15.82 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢ - 9.0 %
Partha Dasgupta
$634.36 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 8.5 %
Michael Woodford
$55.08 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢ - 8.5 %
Sidney Winter
$13.89 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢ - 8.0 %
Matthew Rabin
$291.06 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢ - 7.8 %
Andreu Mas-Colell
$170.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.8¢No 92.2¢
- 7.5 %
Ernst Fehr
$252.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢ - 7.5 %
Lawrence Katz
$50.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢ - 7.5 %
David Autor
$28.33 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢ - 6.5 %
Demian Reidel
$485.57 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 6.0 %
Luigi Zingales
$2.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 5.5 %
Javier Milei
$562.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢ - 5.5 %
Hal Varian
$473.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture · Awards
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 17 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 332
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 27,288 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
The Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded annually by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is scheduled to be announced on October 12, 2026, at 11:45 AM CEST (5:45 AM ET) at the earliest. The Nobel Prize in Economics means the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is named a laureate of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics in the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The prize may be shared by up to three laureates. A listed person who shares the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics will resolve to "Yes" regardless of how many other laureates are named alongside them. If the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is withheld, is reserved for a later year, or has otherwise not been announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, published at https://www.nobelprize.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 17 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against nobelprize.org. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 13, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 6, 2026 19:15 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.