November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
Live
- $4.4K
- $6.2K
- 28
- $3.0K
- $8.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 1st hottest91.0%
- 2nd hottest5.0%
- 3rd hottest0.5%
- 4th or lower 0.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
4 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 4 open questions add up to 97.0¢.
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · Science
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 4 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 53
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 6,165 shares
- Created
- First trade
- Event start
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This event has 4 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Dec 29, 2026 05:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 2, 2026 03:35 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.