OpenAI’s Astra released by…?
Settled
- $1.09M
- Sep 4, 2026
- 15
- $356.6K
- —
Questions in this event
15 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- Settled Yes
October 31
- Settled Yes
September 4
- Settled Yes
September 5
- Settled Yes
September 6
- Settled Yes
September 7
- Settled Yes
September 8
- Settled Yes
September 9
- Settled Yes
September 11
- Settled Yes
September 15
- Settled Yes
September 25
- Settled Yes
September 30
- Settled No
August 15
- Settled No
August 31
- Settled No
September 2
- Settled No
September 3
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 15 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 0
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This event has 15 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
15 of the 15 have settled; October 31, September 4, September 5, September 6, September 7, September 8, September 9, September 11, September 15, September 25, September 30 settled Yes.
Volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.