OpenAI's Astra released on...?
Settled
- $244.9K
- Sep 4, 2026
- 30
- $94.0K
- —
Questions in this event
30 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- Settled Yes
September 4
- Settled No
No release by September 30
- Settled No
On or prior to September 2
- Settled No
September 3
- Settled No
September 5
- Settled No
September 6
- Settled No
September 7
- Settled No
September 8
- Settled No
September 9
- Settled No
September 10
- Settled No
September 11
- Settled No
September 12
- Settled No
September 13
- Settled No
September 14
- Settled No
September 15
- Settled No
September 16
- Settled No
September 17
- Settled No
September 18
- Settled No
September 19
- Settled No
September 20
- Settled No
September 21
- Settled No
September 22
- Settled No
September 23
- Settled No
September 24
- Settled No
September 25
- Settled No
September 26
- Settled No
September 27
- Settled No
September 28
- Settled No
September 29
- Settled No
September 30
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 30 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 0
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This event has 30 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
30 of the 30 have settled; September 4 settled Yes.
Volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.