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Politics · US electionsTexas Senate

Texas Senate Election Winner

Live

$101.4K
$1.38M
181
$1.59M
$649.9K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.

  • James Talarico (D)62.5%
  • Ken Paxton (R)37.5%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Politics · US elections
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$2,500
Resolver
UMA CTF Adapter v3
Questions
2 open · 11 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
311
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
256,129 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This event has 13 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 08:15 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.