What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?
Live
- $12.6K
- $26.1K
- 43
- $20.4K
- $93.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- ↓ $73074.0%
- ↓ $72056.5%
- ↓ $71039.5%
- ↑ $77030.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
11 open · 5 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 74.0 %
↓ $730
$624.67 traded, 24 h
Yes 74.0¢No 26.0¢ - 56.5 %
↓ $720
$370.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢ - 39.5 %
↓ $710
$857.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢ - 30.5 %
↑ $770
$98.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢ - 28.0 %
↓ $700
$1.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢ - 19.5 %
↑ $780
$202.62 traded, 24 h
Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢ - 11.5 %
↑ $790
$170.41 traded, 24 h
Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢ - 6.0 %
↑ $800
$211.54 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 4.5 %
↑ $810
$123.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 2.9 %
↑ $830
$133.09 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.9¢No 97.1¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Equities
- Series
- (SPY) hit Month · monthly
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $250
- Dispute window
- 15 minutes
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 11 open · 5 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 209
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 20,519 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?
This event has 16 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
5 of the 16 have settled; ↓ $750, ↓ $740, ↓ $760, ↑ $760, ↓ $760 settled Yes.
The result is checked against pythdata.app. Open the source
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 5, 2026 17:24 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.