What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Live
- $39.9K
- $655.2K
- 14
- $158.8K
- $274.7K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Dilution of Iran's Uranium16.0%
- ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)14.5%
- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)14.5%
- 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium9.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
6 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 16.0 %
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
$2.81 traded, 24 h
Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢ - 14.5 %
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
$39.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢ - 14.5 %
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
$174.26 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢ - 9.5 %
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢ - 9.0 %
Iran Reconstruction Funding
$551.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 4.5 %
Enriched Uranium Surrender
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Middle East
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 6 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 14
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 46,397 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
Rules
This event has 6 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 14, 2026 04:43 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.