Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Live
- $6.1K
- $838.9K
- 10
- $138.1K
- $260.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Somaliland11.0%
- Jordan6.5%
- Qatar5.1%
- Lebanon5.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
12 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 11.0 %
Somaliland
Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢ - 6.5 %
Jordan
$10.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢ - 5.1 %
Qatar
$38.15 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.1¢No 94.9¢ - 5.0 %
Lebanon
$1.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢ - 4.5 %
Kuwait
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.5 %
Azerbaijan
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.4 %
Egypt
Yes 4.4¢No 95.6¢ - 4.4 %
Syria
Yes 4.4¢No 95.6¢ - 4.1 %
Oman
Yes 4.1¢No 95.9¢ - 4.0 %
Pakistan
Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Middle East
- Series
- Abraham Accords New Country
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 12 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 13
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 6,614 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 12 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2026 04:33 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.