Who will be arrested before 2027?
Live
- $19.7K
- $243.2K
- 80
- $149.4K
- $574.6K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- James Comey22.4%
- John Brennan21.5%
- Mahmoud Khalil21.5%
- Lee Jun-seok10.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
24 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 22.4 %
James Comey
$5.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 22.4¢No 77.6¢ - 21.5 %
Mahmoud Khalil
$88.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢ - 21.5 %
John Brennan
Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢ - 10.1 %
Lee Jun-seok
Yes 10.1¢No 89.9¢ - 7.8 %
Anthony Fauci
$3.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 7.8¢No 92.2¢ - 7.7 %
Tom Homan
$69.82 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.7¢No 92.3¢ - 6.0 %
James Clapper
$1.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 6.0 %
Candace Owens
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 5.7 %
Lisa Cook
$1.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 5.7¢No 94.3¢ - 5.5 %
Letitia James
$509.74 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢
- 5.5 %
Susan Rice
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢ - 5.1 %
Hillary Clinton
$7.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 5.1¢No 94.9¢ - 5.0 %
Pam Bondi
Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢ - 4.5 %
Adam Schiff
$1.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.3 %
Benjamin Netanyahu
$21.68 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢ - 4.3 %
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$2.86 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢ - 3.5 %
Brandon Johnson
$28.80 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢ - 3.3 %
Gavin Newsom
$283.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.3¢No 96.7¢ - 2.4 %
Kash Patel
Yes 2.4¢No 97.6¢ - 2.1 %
Loretta Lynch
$33.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 1.6 %
Bill Clinton
$1.74 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.5 %
Barack Obama
$3.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.5 %
John Kerry
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.1 %
Joe Biden
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Trump
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- No trading fee
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 24 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 165
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 34,236 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 24 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 11:19 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.